Energy technology scenarios and strategies for a more secure and sustainable energy future

On 22 June the International Energy Agency (IEA) presented the key findings of a new publication: 'Energy Technology Perspectives: Scenarios and Strategies to 2050'. “A sustainable energy future is possible, but only if we act urgently and decisively to promote, develop and deploy a full mix of energy technologies – including improved energy efficiency, CO2 capture and storage (CCS), renewables and -- where acceptable -- nuclear energy. We have the means, now we need the will”, Mr Mandil, IEA Executive Director, said.

G8 leaders at the Summit in Gleneagles in July 2005 asked the IEA to advise on alternative scenarios and strategies aimed at a 'clean, clever and competitive energy future' and 'Energy Technology Perspectives' is part of this advice. The study presents a series of scenarios demonstrating the role that energy technologies, already available or under development, can play in future energy markets. Mr Mandil went on to say “We find that clean and more efficient technologies can return soaring energy-related CO2 emissions to today’s levels by 2050 and halve the expected growth in both oil and electricity demand”.

The IEA publication takes a detailed look at status and prospects for key energy technologies in power generation, buildings, industry and transport and puts forward strategies for attaining scenarios unimaginable under current trends. Energy efficiency is seen as essential to mitigate growth in energy demand and CO2 emissions and can be achieved using technologies that exist now. Accelerating energy efficiency improvements alone can reduce the world’s energy demand in 2050 by an amount equivalent to almost half of today’s global energy consumption. To achieve this, however, governments, in both OECD and non-OECD countries, must be willing to implement measures to encourage investment in energy-efficient technologies.

An important technology will be the capture and storage of CO2 (CCS) emitted from power-generation or industrial processes. The study says that the early demonstration of CCS in full-scale power plants should be a high priority. Deploying CCS, along with more renewables, more nuclear and more efficient use of natural gas and coal, can significantly decarbonise global electricity generation by 2050. “With the right policy incentives we think there is scope for renewables to quadruple by 2050 and for nuclear to gain a more important role in countries where it is acceptable”, Mr. Mandil stated.